Can Chichester really lose a GOP primary? Yes he can.

There are a lot of people in Richmond and Fredericksburg who assume John Chichester is invulnerable, based on his 2003 primary victory. I humbly - well, maybe not-so-humbly - disagree.

First of all, throughout the 2003 campaign, Chichester promised 28th District Republicans that he would "support our shared Republican principles of smaller government [and] lower taxes." He made it even clearer to the Richmond Times Dispatch, "I’m certainly not going to favor raising taxes" (Peter Ferrara). Four years later, he has broken his word not once (2004), not twice (2006), but three times (2007). He can no longer claim to be low-tax Republican now.

Yes, yes, they say, but Chichester is focused on transportation. Surely his suburban DC district will reward him for it - even Republicans.

To this I respond with a question: has anyone actually looked at Chichester's district? While suburban Stafford County is a large piece of the 28th, the fact is that Stafford, Prince William, and Fredericksburg actually accounted for less than half of the 2003 primary vote. The majority of voters and precincts were in the Northern Neck and Fauquier county. I'm guessing voters in the Neck will be far more focused on the higher gas taxes Chichester wants them to pay than the asphalt heading for NoVa and Hampton Roads commuter routes that few of them use. As for Fauquier, Chichester actually lost its precincts in 2003.

I'm not saying a Chichester defeat is inevitable, but I don't think anyone can say it's impossible.